Res Trudeau; he will always be Prime Minister

Canada has a leader, his name is Justin Trudeau. He is the son of one of Canada’s longest serving Leaders Pierre Elliot Trudeau. In my opinion Trudeau is on his way to serving as long as his father. Trudeau Jr. has already served almost two complete terms while his father has served nearly four. In other words I am predicting that Trudeau and his Liberals will win election two more times. In fact it is nearly inevitable.

Kerry and I live in Saskatchewan and I think people would be surprised to hear me say this as nearly everyone is exhausted and frustrated with the Liberals and have been for a long time. It’s no surprise then that Saskatchewan in the last election voted for the opposition across the board, and to a lesser extent this was the case in many other provinces in Canada. Canada’s parliamentary seats are winner takes all so the Conservative opposition in these districts only have to win more votes than any other party. In right wing areas of Saskatchewan the Conservatives won a healthy majority but in other districts another contender was close behind.

You might think I would say The Liberals, but no it is their second fiddle The NDP whom I think most would describe as being further left than The Liberals. Now if we expand our view outwards a bit, we kind of see the same thing in the rest of Western Canada. You see a map of blue and orange, The Conservatives and The NDP. Right Wing and Left Wing. Western Canada is about half the width of the whole country, did the Liberals win at all there? If you squint closely they did win in some cities like Vancouver and Winnipeg.

Let’s look at the rest of Canada; Ontario Quebec, and The Maritimes. Trudeau is French Canadian surely he did well on his home turf. Well no he actually did even worse than in the prior election. A sizeable portion of Quebec voted for Le Bloc Quebecois a Quebec centric party. Ontario? They did well but the largest and rural districts eschewed The Liberals and voted Conservative or NDP. The Maritimes were nearly a sweep for the Liberals as well as the territories; which although being enormous have an extremely small population and minimal outcomes in federal elections.

Suffice to say when you look at the elections map of Canada it is clear that Canada’s government isn’t exactly representative of much of Canada’s population. Trudeau in my analysis won predominantly because of his success in the cities. Because of their high population they are alloted many seats in parliament. Now remember that you don’t need a majority of votes in a district to win the seat, you need more votes than anyone else. If you can put a few percentage of people that will vote Liberal into these districts, you can flip the seat to Liberal.

For those not aware Canada is a country of about 35 million people; that is one-tenth the size of the U.S. which is tiny for a country that is substantially larger than our southern neighbour. These past years under the Liberals we have added a million people per year in immigration. The number one country of origin being India, however Pakistan is also in the top five, if you add them together it puts South Asia far in the lead, with China also contributing a substantial group of people every year. Some of you have already done the math in your head but this is something like 3% growth to our population every year. With official GDP growth numbers of around 2% most years this means that individual Canadians have a little less to go around every year. The effects of this massive influx of people into Canada every year has many effects, but I want to suggest that it has an important electoral effect.

I don’t have a source for this so let’s just say it was revealed to me in a dream. However it is evident to my own eyes that immigrants to Canada settle in metropolitan areas, after all this is where there are social services and jobs for them. There certainly are some in small towns and the country, but you only need to look at the makeup of elementary schools to tell where immigration mainly effects. Even when I was young in Vancouver my class was all children of immigrants. Now I am going to be frank, an immigrant does not understand the politics and history of a country they just arrived in. The Liberals are marketed heavily to immigrants in their own language on foreign social media like WeChat. Either way basically what I’m saying is that Trudeau tends to be unpopular among people who have actually lived in the country for over 30 years, but if you just got here he doesn’t seem that bad. The Liberals have after all offered alot of free money type programs to help with cost of living, and if there’s one thing I know about immigrants being the child of one is that they can’t resist free stuff.

The last election was a mistake, it wasn’t supposed to be that close. The Liberals has already paid off our state broadcaster The CBC and had a high rate of immigration, but after the election it was clear this wasn’t enough and they had to give away more free money and import even more people. Once again this isn’t a one time importations of a million people, this is every year without break, and it has changed the appearance of Canada very rapidly. Most of this surplus 3% of our population get deposited into Canada’s cities, many of them when able to will vote Liberal, after this its easy to see that Trudeau can easily win these metropolitan districts despite not being the choice of most Canadians. This is probaby as close as he can get to ballot box stuffing as is legal. These macro trends in Canada tip the scales strongly in his direction.

This is why I think he will be in power forever; well maybe not forever he’ll retire I suppose at some point. Everyone already hates him, yet he still wins. I didn’t even get into the many scandals that Trudeau has simply brushed off with the help of The CBC. The factors that allowed him to win have grown substantially and will continue to grow I think, and when all else fails The Liberals simply cut a cheque to the Canadian population to soften people’s opinions. It really is a winning strategy and it’s one that will continue to win them elections into the foreseeable future.