The Future of the Automobile
I am only writing this article because I want to be noted as having correctly predicted the future when this comes to pass. If I myself don’t end up doing this someone else will, it is nearly an inevitability but let’s not take the future for granted it isn’t written in stone. But first let’s a dip into software.
I like most people have used proprietary software that a for profit company made and sold me. I didn’t know anyone in my life who used anything else, I wasn’t tangibly aware of the real alternatives. I always found using my computer and phone frustrating at a deep level. In proprietary systems there is always a walled garden of things that you can’t do. I may not have understood that at the time because the software works very hard to obfuscate this fact but I think my subconscious recognized it.
After a few years of using Linux my workflow is really improving. The software in the Linux ecosystem is extensible, lightweight and has nothing to hide. Because FOSS, or free and open source software publishes their actual source code you can literally make your own modifications and compile the software yourself. In a very real sense you own it. However FOSS projects have also been enabled by Richard Stallman and the GNU project creating a legal basis to protect Free Software, meaning that software licensed under the GPL can’t be copied and used for a closed source for profit software project. Once GPL it is always GPL. You can modify and publish changes to a GPL project, but it also must be freely available and under the GPL license.
Some of you may not have heard of Linux and may wonder if it’s some sort of commie plot. After all Microsoft and Apple respond to free market forces and have an incentive to make a good product. However Linux is actually the most common operating system in the world by far and it is used by everything that is actually important and mission critical. It is used not only by Google, Facebook, Microsoft, and Apple behind the scenes. But it also used by all internet and telephone infrastructure, spacecraft, the list goes on. By having the code openly visible repairs and improvements can be rapidly implemented. These tech companies aren’t really incentivized to make a good product. Their software is meant to obfuscate and protect their IP and to trap you in their ecosystem to make more money off of you.
Linux will far outlive Windows
Windows won’t exist in 100 years
Dont get me wrong, if you just keep you computer disconnected from the internet and run the same software forever that will still work in one hundred years. However the reason they keep updating windows, aside from adding more spyware, is to:
- Fix security vulnerabilities.
- Add useful features
- Maintain compatibility with newer versions of software.
If Microsoft went bankrupt or couldn’t pay to maintain Windows then it would effectively die. They are the only ones who can modify it’s source code and if they stop updating that then sorry Windows won’t work anymore.
Linux is moreso a bunch of modular components that fit together so it’s more of stretch to imagine all the different groups that’s maintain Linux failing but even if they did the code is open source. You yourself could patch issues in the software. The basic GNU commands are also based on Unix from the 1960s and work similarly so learning Linux lasts forever you don’t need to constantly relearn things arbitrarily.
Let’s pivot to cars because we have a similar situation. Cars have been around for a long time and thanks to engineering minds like Henry Ford and Soichiro Honda they’ve gotten pretty good. However I think many people are starting to find that new cars are getting a little less reliable, a little more expensive to repair, and a have alot more spooky spyware. Is this just a coincidence? No, the car industry is facing similar issues to the software industry. Their market is very mature and the technology is dead simple. I know they try to make it sound state of the art, but it really isn’t, and complexity isn’t advancement. What I’m getting at though is that all car brands are selling very similar products in a very competitive market. Are they incentivized to sell you a good quality car. A little, at least enough to not fall behind. But like software their big concerns are protecting their IP with black boxes, sealed components, and proprietary software necessary for repairs. And locking you into their ecosystem with expensive parts, and dealer only repairs.
The cars of today won’t exist in one hundred years. They require proprietary parts and software. And there are parts of them that were never designed to be replaced or repaired, namely the unibody and such. Once rust reached a certain point the car is garbage.
There is also a possibility that no cars will exist in one to three hundred years. No single person could really build a proper car from basic steel extrusions. And many things could happen to humanity that would break down our interconnected economy enough to render cars a thing of the past, and all other complex machines for that matter.
Cars could go extinct unless an open standard is developed to decentralize their production
Cars have been around for a long time, let’s get over the idea that we need established brands to design them. What humanity needs is a modular Free/Libre car that is just an open standard on how to build a working modern car from the ground up just using extruded steel plate, pipes, angle welded together, simple. But in a Libre project is doesn’t have to be simple, it’s extensible. Being that the project would be modular you could fit any body to it; which there would probably be many open blueprints designed to interface with the Libre Car. Pickup, van, enclosed sedan with radio and hvac, or open stripped down roadster) you could fit any power train to it, electric, Chevy 350, or LibreMotor (inline 6 air cooled low magneto ignition low compression for running on farm distilled alcohol).
Such a car would exist forever, during wealthy times people might prefer the full featured body with a smooth refined motor and independent suspension. During bad times people might prefer the no frills stamped body straight axle version with a salvaged diesel motor. It would be a car for all times and places.
Even though to some it may seem like a socialist utopian idea to freely share designs not own IP it really would encourage perfect competition. Rather than buying a Toyota or Renault as a full package you can choose powertrain, frame builder, coachwork, interior from whoever does the best work. It is your car and you are facilitated to make something that actually fits your needs. On the other hand I’m sure companies will sell fully assembled package cars for those who want a curated experience. Its very similar with Linux Distros. There are Distros that require a bit more work to get running but are more customizable, and there are beginner just workstm distros.
This idea can and should be developed into other machine-technologies so that even if we revert to some lower level of education, literacy, or technology as a species that we don’t lose these useful machines. Off the top of my head some consumer visible ones such as refrigeration, gas furnaces, and of course the internal combustion engine should have open blueprinted standards created to give our human descendants this technology that we take for granted, and ourselves in this time an alternative to the increasingly dystopian versions of these machines. However I’m going with the car for a less logical reason.
The automobile has had an immense impact on human culture, but closer to home it has had an impact on me. My first car allowed me for the first time in my life to have a space to myself. It allowed me to go places without my family. It allowed me to meet my wife. It’s difficult to imagine my life without those incredibly positive things that I got to experience becuase there were low cost cars that were available in my youth. I’m not sure my children will live in such a world, and it’s even less certain in 500 or 1000 years that my descendants will have such a privilege. That is why the car above all other machines may be one of the most important to human development.
I’m sure I will write more about this topic in the future, but until then thanks for reading.